Evaluation of Alternative Guided Bus Designs: Results for Kingston Upon Hull.

This paper describes the background and methodology employed in research funded by the EPSRC to assess the traffic management implications of guided bus schemes. One central aim of the project is to demonstrate how simulation tools can be adapted to account for the special features of guided bus schemes and demonstrate their applicability on an actual planned scheme. Traditional bus priority measures are first assessed for their benefits and these are contrasted with those from the planned guided bus scheme. Variations to the planned scheme are also considered. A sophisticated microsimulation model is used to assess the impact of incorporating guided bus infrastructure into three planned schemes. Two of these are from Leeds and Kingston-upon-Hull and are largely within the existing Road infrastructure, whilst the third is from Chester and is largely segregated from the existing road infrastructure. This paper deals exclusively with the Kingston-upon-Hull scheme. The network under consideration is due north of Hull city center and contains two main arterials, the Beverley Road and Stoneferry Road, together with a network of connecting roads. The traditional bus priority measures are concentrated on the Beverley Road, which is currently the main bus arterial of the two roads. When the guideways are constructed the intention is that the Stoneferry Road would become a more important bus arterial than it currently is. The planned guided bus scheme exists in four variants: two-way at the kerb; two-way in the median; tidal in the median and an elevated section located in the median. This paper describes the evaluation of the base network; the individual traditional priority measures; the combined traditional priority measures and the four planned guided bus schemes

National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. Literature Review: Aggregate Models

This paper reviews the current state-of-the-art in the production of National Multi-Modal Travel Forecasts. The review concentrates on the UK travel market and the various attempts to produce a set of accurate, coherent and credible forecasts. The paper starts by a brief introduction to the topic area. The second section gives a description of the background to the process and the problems involved in producing forecasts. Much of the material and terminology in the section, which covers modelling methodologies, is from Ortúzar and Willumsen (1994). The paper then goes on to review the forecasting methodology used by the Department of Transport (DoT) to produce the periodic National Road Traffic Forecasts (NRTF), which are the most significant set of travel forecasts in the UK. A brief explanation of the methodology will be given. The next section contains details of how other individuals and organisations have used, commented on or attempted to enhance the DoT methodology and forecasts. It will be noted that the DoT forecasts are only concerned with road traffic forecasts, with other modes (rail, air and sea) only impacting on these forecasts when there is a transfer to or from the road transport sector. So the following sections explore the attempts to produce explicit travel and transportation forecasts for these other modes. The final section gathers together a set of issues which are raised by this review and might be considered by the project

Estimating confidence intervals for transport Mode share.

One of the common statistics used to monitor transport activity is the total travel by a particular method or mode and, for each mode, this share is routinely expressed as a percentage of total personal travel. This article describes a simple model to estimate a confidence interval around this percentage using Monte Carlo simulation. The model takes into account the impact of both measurement errors in counting traffic and daily variations in traffic levels. These confidence intervals can then be used to test reliably for significant changes in mode share. The model can also be used in sensitivity analysis to investigate how sensitive the width of this interval is to changes in the size of the measurement errors and daily fluctuations. A bootstrap technique is then used to validate the Monte Carlo estimated confidence interval

Application of Advanced Stated Preference Design Methodology

This paper demonstrates the application of the design methodology developed in the Advanced Stated Preference Design project to stated preference experiments. The paper considers binary response experimental designs of two, three and four variables. In addition the special case of a two variable design with an alternative specific constant is also considered. Alternative optimality criteria are discussed. The paper concludes with recommendations on how to apply the design methodolog

Application of Advanced Stated Preference Design Methodology

This paper demonstrates the application of the design methodology developed in the Advanced Stated Preference Design project to stated preference experiments. The paper considers binary response experimental designs of two, three and four variables. In addition the special case of a two variable design with an alternative specific constant is also considered. Alternative optimality criteria are discussed. The paper concludes with recommendations on how to apply the design methodolog

Priority Management for Urban Arterials. Transferability of Techniques: Hypothetical Arterials.

A series of hypothetical corridors have been simulated, representing a range of junction spacings, capacity distribution, availability of parallel routes, bus flows and routing patterns. These have been used to test a range of traffic management measures designed to increase capacity, improve public transport operations and calm traffic. All measures have been assessed in terms of their impact on travel costs and conclusions have been drawn in terms of the appropriateness of different measures in differing contexts

Priority Management for Urban Arterials. Transferability of Techniques: York/Selby Road.

This paper describes the background and methodology employed in research funded by EPSRC to assess the effect of individual traffic control measures, both in isolation and in combination upon urban arterials. The aim of the project was to test the transferability of the techniques developed in a DRIVE II project, PRIMAVERA, to a range of different types of urban corridor. Measures can be classed into three broad categories: Congestion Management, Public Transport Priority and Traffic Calming. The scope of these measures is wide, some operating at a junction level whilst others affect the whole network. Measures from these areas are applied to a sophisticated microsimulation model of four urban arterial corridors: three in Leeds and one in Leicester. The effects of the application of individual and integrated measures are assessed in terms of their efficiency, environmental and safety impacts using a form of Multi-Criteria Analysis. Travel time and other monetary costs are also taken into consideration. This paper reports the results for the A64 York and A63 Selby Road which are the main arterial routes to the east of Leeds.

Priority Management for Urban Arterials. Transferability of Techniques: Humberstone/Uppingham Road.

This paper describes the background and methodology employed in research funded by EPSRC to assess the effect of individual traffic control measures, both in isolation and in combination upon urban arterials. The aim of the project was to test the transferability of the techniques developed in a DRIVE II project, PRIMAVERA, to a range of different types of urban corridor. The techniques concerned can be classed into three broad categories: Congestion Management, Public Transport Priority and Traffic Calming. The scope of these measures is wide, some operating at a junction level whilst others concentrate on the efficient use of road space. Measures from these areas are applied to a sophisticated microsimulation model of four urban arterial corridors: three in Leeds and one in Leicester. The effects of the application of individual and integrated measures are assessed in terms of their efficiency, environmental and safety impacts using a form of Multi-Criteria Analysis. Travel time and other monetary costs are also taken into consideration. This paper reports the results for the A47 Humberstone and Uppingham Roads which form the main arterial route to the east of Leicester

How TRAF-NETSIM Works.

This paper describes how TRAF-NETSIM works in detail. It is a review of the TRAF-NETSIM micro-simulation model, for use in the research topic "The Development of Queueing Simulation Procedures for Traffic in Bangkok". TRAF-NETSIM is a computer program for modelling of traffic in urban networks. It is written in the FORTRAN 77 computer language. It uses bit-manipulation mechanisms for "packing" and "unpacking" data and a program overlay structure to reduce the computer memory requirements of the program. The model is based on a fixed time, and discrete event simulation approach. The periodic scan method is used in the model with a time interval of one second. In the model, up to 16 different vehicle types with 4 different vehicle categories (car, carpool, bus and truck) can be identified. Also, the driver's behaviour (passive, normal, aggressive), pedestrians' movement, parking and blocking (eg a broken-down car) can be simulated. Moreover, it has the capability to simulate the effects of traffic control ranging from a simple stop sign controlled junction to a dynamic/real time control system. The effects of spillbacks can be simulated in detail. The estimation of fuel consumption and vehicle emissions are optional simulations. Car following and lane changing models are incorporated into TRAF-NETSIM. The outputs can be shown in US standard units, Metric units, or both

Priority Management for Urban Arterials. Transferability of Techniques: Otley/Kirkstall Road

This paper describes the background and methodology employed in research funded by EPSRC to assess the effect of individual traffic control measures, both in isolation and in combination upon urban arterials. The aim of the project was to test the transferability of the techniques developed in a DRIVE II project, PRIMAVERA, to a range of different types of urban corridor. Measures can be classed into three broad categories: Congestion Management, Public Transport Priority and Traffic Calming. The scope of these measures is wide, some operating at a junction level whilst others affect the whole network. Measures from these areas are applied to a sophisticated microsimulation model of four urban arterial corridors: three in Leeds and one in Leicester. The effects of the application of individual and integrated measures are assessed in terms of their efficiency, environmental and safety impacts using a form of Multi-Criteria Analysis. Travel time and other monetary costs are also taken into consideration. This paper describes the study of two neighbouring arterials to the west of Leeds, the Otley and Kirkstall Roads. These arterials have been considered together since they are geographically close to each other. The Otley Road is the main arterial to the north west of Leeds City Centre, linking the Outer Ring Road to the Centre and is approximately 5km in length. The Kirkstall Road is to the south of the Otley Road, running west to east. The section of Kirkstall Road chosen for inclusion in this combined corridor is 3.5 km in length. The land use surrounding each corridor is primarily residential although near the city centre on the Kirkstall Road there are light industrial units. A popular district shopping centre exists halfway along the Otley Road